Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis

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Proliferation Assessment of Ballistic Missiles in the Middle East
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INEGMA is pleased to announce the publication of INEGMA’s Special Report No. 2 and No. 3. Special Report No. 2 is “Proliferation Assessment of Ballistic Missiles in the Middle East” while Special Report No. 3 is “Proliferation Assessment of Cruise Missiles in Middle East.” Both are authored by General Khalid Abdullah Al Bu-Ainnain, the Former Commander of the UAE Air Force and Air Defense and President of INEGMA. They are updated adaptations from General Khalid’s presentations to the INEGMA conference “Middle East Missile and Air Defense” held in Abu Dhabi in December 2008. Download links to these reports are provided below.
Synopsis: The recent advances in ballistic and cruise missile around the Gulf region and beyond shows an increasing alarming proliferation race. As these development programs have taken on a serious national development supported by political leaderships and national wills, taking into consideration that these countries have already acquired a nuclear military capability or in a final stage to acquire such nuclear capability, that has seriously affected in turn the GCC States’ security concerns including the welfare and prosperity achieved by the Gulf States in the last 30 years.
Throughout the entire region there is a proliferation race ongoing. Israel, India, Pakistan, and Iran are all participants. Yet unfortunately there is a double standard proliferation policy implanted in the region from the West that is making the situation more serious—that some countries are allowed to proliferate while others are not. In other words, there is no serious effort to effectively “reign in” proliferation trends that are now spiraling upwards faster and quicker and there is no serious solution for this proliferation taken by the international regime especially the western policy due to this double standard policy. This must be fixed.
The first generation of ballistic missile, also known as the Scud-type system, uses old technology that has reached its limit. While the most widespread type of TBM in the world, first generation TBM have poor effectiveness and are limited to delivering conventional warheads. Today, the advanced generation of TBMs use technology similar to that of nuclear power states by utilizing advanced warhead designs, advanced guidance systems, solid propulsion systems, and are for use mainly on mobile platforms. Today’s generation of advanced TBM offer much improved military effectiveness and SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses) capability through short-range TBM. Tomorrow’s TBM will move towards further improvement with the incorporation of MIRV technology, BMD penetration penaids (for long-range TBM) and extending its operability with new platforms such as by submarine, and we will see introduction of new maneuver capabilities in flight trajectories.
Advanced generation cruise missiles are becoming an important weapon in modern warfare and are now entering into service in the Middle East region. The implications of this development means that access to the Gulf region could be made difficult or denied. Yesterday’s cruise missiles which used first generation technology such as INS/Altimeter, and which were mainly used as anti-ship weapons because of their limitedness to large targets are being replaced with today’s advanced generation systems which use improved guidance systems (INS/GPS/GLOSNASS), and in case of land attack cruise missile, terrain matching and scene correlation systems that provide greater accuracy and maneuverability. Tomorrow’s cruise missiles will also use more stealth technology to reduce chances of detection and engagement by enemy air defense, and also will have improved ranges, and will be capable of submarine-platform and ship launch.
Thus cruise missile technology proliferation has become a serious concern where their level of sophistication has reached a dangerous stage. In particular, this development means that strategic assets in the Gulf are directly threatened and that a prompt and strong effort to achieve an integrated seamless air defense system has become vital to regional security.
Several other papers on this topic are planned for future release as INEGMA prepares for the second edition of the ground-breaking Middle East Missile & Air Defense (MEMAD) symposium scheduled for December 2010 in Abu Dhabi, UAE.
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